As we sit between the Mid-Ohio race July 2nd and the Toronto race July 16th, Alex Palou (Ganassi-Honda) leads the race for the drivers’ championship by 110 points with eight races to go. For those of you not familiar with Indycar scoring, Palou could fail to start two races and still be assured of having the lead in the driver’s championship.

He could have three or four mediocre races and still have the lead.

So, I was wondering, what would it take to catch Palou over the last eight races of the season, and is that at all reasonable?

First the standings down to 7th place, which is my arbitrary cutoff for what’s reasonable to consider, with (average finishing position in parentheses):

Alex Palou (Ganassi-Honda): 377 (2.0) Scott Dixon (Ganassi-Honda): -110 (5) Josef Newgarden (Penske-Chevy): -116 (5.5) Marcus Ericsson (Ganassi-Honda): -122 (6) Pato O’Ward (McLaren-Chevy): -127 (6) Scott McLaughlin (Penske-Chevy): -148 (7.5) Will Power (Penske-Chevy): -151 (7.5)

A couple of quick notes about the standings:

• This is a BIG DAMN LEAD . For Scott Dixon to catch his teammate over the next eight races, he has to finish ahead of him by an AVERAGE of three places in every race. Looking down the line to McLaughlin and and they are looking at beating Palou by an average of 5.5 places in every race.
• The hype surrounding McLaren does not appear to be justified. Pato O’Ward is the only McLaren driver to make a dent in the Ganassi-Penske domination at the top of the driver championship standings. And it’s only really a small dent.

What happens if the last eight races of 2023 play out like the last eight races of 2022?

Adding the results from the last eight races of 2022 to the first nine of 2023 results in Palou winning by 67 over Dixon in second.

Over the last eight races of 2022, Palou’s average finish was sixth. That is because something happened to him in the second half of 2022 that has not happened this season: He had two bad races (Iowa 2 and Portland) to go with three “meh” races (Toronto, Iowa 1, and Gateway).

The bad news for the field is that both Josef Newgarden (Iowa 1 and Gateway) and Scott Dixon (Toronto and Nashville) won two races in the second half of 2022. Over the last eight races, Dixon scored 43 points more than more than Palou over the last eight races of 2022, and Newgarden scored 33 more. In fact, of the current top 7 only Ericsson and O’Ward did not outscore Palou over the last eight races.

So, for Dixon or Newgarden to catch Palou, they would each have to better than they did in the second half of 2022, and Palou would have to do worse.

Who Has the Best Chance of Catching Palou?

In my mind there is only one driver who could possibly catch Palou, and that’s Josef Newgarden, mostly because he has been next to unbeatable on oval tracks. The other advantage Newgarden has is that for anyone to come close to Palou, they would have to win three or four of the eight races. There are three ovals between now and the end of the year: A doubleheader in Iowa and a single race at Gateway. Newgarden’s is path is simple: Win Iowa 1, Iowa 2 and Gateway, then podium in all the other races. How does that work out? I ran two scenarios:

* Newgarden wins both Iowa Races and Gateway and finishes third in all other races, while Palou does what he did in 2022 and averages a 6th place finish in all eight races. In that case, Palou still wins the title by six points. * Newgarden wins both Iowa Races and Gateway and finishes second in all other races, while Palou does what he did in 2022 and averages a 6th place finish in all eight races. In that case, Newgarden wins the title by six points.

The first problem with this is it assumes Palou’s performance will drop off a cliff, relatively speaking. Let’s look at some specifics:

* I assume that Palou will not do real well at either Iowa or Gateway and that he will be in damage control mode for those weekends. * Also in this scenario we are assuming that Palou would finish 10th at the Brickyard road course race and 12th at Portland, as he did in 2022. Both are worse than his worst result so far this season (8th at St. Pete). Not to mention that he won on the Indy road course in May and Portland in 2021.

The second problem is assuming that Newgarden won’t get a strong challenge on the three ovals from O’Ward, McLaughlin and Power. If one of those driver’s steals one of the oval races from Newgarden and the Driver’s title race becomes a lot harder for Newgarden.

The third problem for Newgarden is the changing Chevy v. Honda dynamic. In 2022, Honda sucked. Chevy won 11 of the 17 races. This year that has turned around. Chevy has only won road/street course race (McLaughlin, Barber). And the qualifying results for Mid-Ohio (Honda locked out the Top Six positions for the first time ever) did not look great for the bowtie brigade.

Can anyone catch Palou?

Of course it’s possible. But whoever would do it would have to win AT LEAST three of the last eight races. Likely four.

I don’t think Dixon can beat Palou by several places each race in the same equipment.

I think the most likely driver to catch Palou is Newgarden. But two things are paramount:

* He MUST win both Iowa Races and the Gateway race. * He MUST finish on the podium everywhere else (Second preferably). If he finishes off the podium at any road/street race, he would need to win a road/street race to make up for it.

How common are road/street podiums for Newgarden the rest of the way? Let’s looking at road/street finishes since the first use of the Universal Aero Kit (2018):

* Toronto: he has finished 9, 4, 10 * IMS Road Course: he has finished 11, 15, 7, 1, 4, 4, 8, 25, 5, 7 Nashville: 10, 6 Portland: 10, 5, 5, 8 Laguna Seca: 8, 7, 2

Anyway you look at it, it is going to be a challenge for Newgarden, or anyone else. The improvement necessary to catch Palou would be stark.

Honda leads Manufacturer Race

Through nine races out of 17, Honda has won 6 races to Chevy’s 3 and leads by 66 points: 759-693. That is about two and a half races. Still, I don’t think Honda is going to beat Chevy this season.

The reason is simple: Chevy dominates short ovals. I have already penciled in podium sweeps for Chevy for both Iowa races, and for the Gateway race. That would yield a lead for Chevy of 50-60 points going into final two road races at Portland and Laguna Seca. That would be nearly insurmountable for Honda.

Silly Season

There will be a lot of movement prior to the 2024 season, but not a lot will happen until Alex Palou’s future is settled. In all probability, Palou will not be back with Ganassi in 2024. The two most likely landing spots:

• McLaren’s Indycar team (replacing Felix Rosenqvist)

One of the Red Bull teams in F1.

The word on the street is that Palou’s current contract with McLaren as an F1 reserve driver in 2023 allows him to negotiate with other F1 teams until August 1. If he has no contract with an F1 team by August 1, he cannot sign an F1 contract for 2024 with any team other than McLaren. Given that McLaren is set for 2024 with their current driver lineup, Palou’s only chance for an F1 ride in 2024 is with a different team. And by 2025 he would be 28, which is really old for an F1 rookie. So this silly season seems to be make-or-break for Palou in F1.

On the Indycar side, He cannot sign anything with a team other than Ganassi before Sept 1. Ganassi has offered Palou $4 million per year to stay, but everyone in the Paddock thinks that if he does not have an F1 ride, he will sign with McLaren’s Chevy-powered Indycar team for 2024.

Other Indycar Silly Season highlights:

HONDA OPEN SEATS

Ganassi:

The Paddock assumes that Alex Palou will not be back. Popular speculation is the seat will be taken by Nick Cassidy or Calum Illot (Juncos-Hollinger-Chevy)

The status of both the 8 car (Marcus Ericsson) and the 11 (Marcus Armstrong) is up in the air. CGR’s business model in recent years has been to hire drivers for the 9 (Dixon) and 10 (currently Palou), while relying on the drivers of the 8 (Ericsson) and 11 (Armstrong) to bring most of the funding for those cars.

Ericsson wants to be paid and seems willing to go to another team once he is free to sign with other teams (August 1). Andretti and Meyer-Shank are thought to be interested in Ericsson.

Armstrong, who did not run the ovals this season for Ganassi, is thought to be working on raising the money to run a full season in the 11 for 2024.

After David Malukas announced that he was leaving Dale Coyne, there has been speculation that Malukas might bring his family funding to the Ganassi 8 car, and that CGR would be glad to have him.

Andretti:
28: Romain Grosjean is a free agent and the seat is open. Rumor is that the team is waiting on events with other drivers before deciding to re-sign Grosjean.
29: Devlin DeFrancesco (who brought funding) is looking for another ride and Andretti is looking for a driver that it will pay instead of making the driver bring funding. Popular speculation has them eyeing Ericsson and Ilott.

Dale Coyne:
David Malukas has announced that he is leaving. Sting Ray Robb’s status is unknown.

Meyer Shank:
It is thought that neither Simon Pagenaud and Hello Castroneves will not return full time. Assumption is that one of the seats will go to MSR’s IMSA driver Tom Blomqvist. The second seat is apparently open.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan:
It is believed that Jack Harvey won’t be back. If Palou ends up at the McLaren Indycar program, it is thought Rosenqvist might end up at RLLR .

NEXT RACE

Honda Indy Toronto, July 16th, 1:30 p.m. Eastern, only on Peacock.