The 2022 Indycar season comes to an end this Sunday at Laguna Seca and the driver’s championship is coming down to one Ganassi-Honda driver (Scott Dixon) vs. two Penske-Chevy drivers (Will Power and Josef Newgarden). While Marcus Ericsson (Ganassi-Honda) and Scott McLaughlin (Penske-Chevy) are mathematically still alive, the actual chances of either winning are small.
So let’s answer a few questions about the situation:
What are the standings going into the final?
Will Power: 523
Josef Newgarden: -20 (Wins all possible tie breakers)
Scott Dixon: -20
Marcus Ericsson: -39
Scott McLaughlin -41
How would each driver win?
Power wins: If he finishes third or higher. He also wins if all of the others finish worse than 7th. His 20-point lead makes it hard to pick anyone else (Power loses all tiebreakers).
Dixon or Newgarden win: Chances are essentially the same for Dixon and Newgarden since they are tied going in (except that Newgarden wins all tiebreakers):
- Win and have Power finish worse than 3rd
Finish second and have Power finish 9th or worse.
Finish third and have Power finish worse than 14th.
Ericsson wins: If he qualifies on pole, leads the most laps, and wins the race, then he would also need Power finishing 14th or worse and both Dixon and Newgarden finishing fourth or worse.
McLaughlin wins: His situation is almost the same as Ericsson, except he would need his competitors to finish one place lower than in the Ericsson scenario.
What do we need to watch for over the weekend?
Practice and qualifying.
Given the difficulty of passing and the typical lack of cautions at Laguna, qualifying is likely to determine a lot. To know where everyone stands for qualifying, watch the Friday afternoon qualifying session (September 9, 5:30 Eastern, Peacock Premium). The Friday session is run at the same time of day as Saturday qualifying and that is the only pre-qualifying practice where the teams are allowed to run the faster red sidewall tires. So pay attention to those results.
As to qualifying itself, any of the drivers that does not advance to at least Q2 is toast. Even Power. And any driver that makes it to the Fast Six without the other title competitors will be at a significant advantage. For any of Power’s challengers to have a decent shot, they have to be in the Fast Six Saturday.
Who has an advantage?
Based on 2021, Will Power. He qualified third and finished second, which would be more than enough. Dixon finished third last year.
Based on this season’s recent test, it could be Marcus Ericsson and Scott Dixon. Their Ganassi team chose to test at Laguna last week, while the Penske team tested at Portland. But Ericsson has never won an Indycar pole and Dixon has been inconsistent lately.
The Laguna Seca track has a unique surface. It’s old and polished, yet abrasive. And it changes every season. Testing there recently could be an advantage.
Who’s going to win?
It’s hard not to pick Power. He did well there last season and he has been awfully consistent this season. Both Dixon and Newgarden have been inconsistent qualifying and Laguna Seca won’t forgive a bad qualifying session.
Be sure to watch this battle play out on Sunday Sept. 11th at 3:00P EST on NBC .
Reply