A lot has happened since we last we wrote about the 2022 Indycar season before the Toronto race: Indy 500 winner Marcus Ericsson (Ganassi-Honda) had a promising lead in the race for the driver’s championship, Honda was nowhere in the race for the manufacturer’s title, and Chip Ganassi Racing looked ready to run the same group of 4 drivers in 2023 that it is running this year (Ericsson, Scott Dixon, Alex Palou and Jimmie Johnson).
Since then there have been five races in four weekends: Honda won three of them and is in a little better shape in the manufacturer’s race, Scott Dixon won two of them and vaulted into strong contention in the driver’s championship race, and Chip Ganassi Racing sued Alex Palou after he revealed that he signed to join McLaren-Chevy next season.
And remember when Felix Rosenqvist (McLaren-Chevy) announced he was staying with McLaren to either drive in Indycar or Formula E? That’s changed a bit.
It’s been interesting. Let’s get caught up:
Race Winners:
Honda Indy Toronto:
Scott Dixon (Ganassi-Honda)
Iowa Race 1:
Josef Newgarden (Penske-Chevy)
Iowa Race 2:
Pato O’Ward (McLaren-Chevy)
Indy Road Course:
Alexander Rossi (Andretti-Honda)
Nashville Street Course:
Scott Dixon (Ganassi-Honda)
As you can imagine, winning two races and finishing reasonably well in the others will do wonders for your rank in the driver’s championship standings. Prior to Toronto, Dixon was in sixth place 69 points behind Ericsson. Now he’s in second 6 points behind Will Power (Penske-Chevy). Ericsson is third, 12 points back.
Driver Standings:
Will Power (Penske-Chevy): 450
Scott Dixon (Ganassi-Honda): – 6
Marcus Ericsson (Ganassi-Honda): – 12
Josef Newgarden (Penske-Chevy): – 22
Alex Palou (Ganassi-Honda): – 33
And that’s about it. Scott McLaughlin (Penske-Chevy) is 58 back and Pato O’Ward (McLaren-Chevy) is 59 back. While that is not an impossible amount, either one of them would likely have to win two of the three races to jump all five of the drivers in front of them. Does not seem likely.
Among the top five, this almost sets up like a playoff. Any one of them could take the title by winning a race or two of the three.
But there are some things we can look at.
The Schedule:
Gateway Oval, August 20:
Probably plays to Power and Newgarden, who won at the Texas Oval, dominated at Iowa and won the Gateway race in 2021.
Portland road course, September 4 and Laguna Seca road course, Sept. 11:
Taken together these probably play to Dixon’s, Ericsson’s and Palou’s advantage.
Overall, Dixon and Newgarden are the momentum plays, with their recent race wins. But Will Power has been very consistent all season.
Based on what’s left, I see some version of Power, Dixon and Newgarden as the top three, not necessarily in that order. A lot of it will depend on whether the Ganassi team will show up at Gateway with something more than what they had at Iowa. If they don’t they will have to dig themselves out of a big hole in the last two races.
A few points to consider in the Driver’s Championship:
Newgarden has good and bad going for him. The good is he owns all the conceivable tie-breakers, with four wins. The only way that changes is if Dixon wins two of the last three, in which case I would not expect tiebreakers to be involved. Anyone who wins two of the last three is going to win the title. The bad is that Newgarden has the oldest engine, and any engine changes for any of the top drivers are going to result in a penalty. Look for Newgarden to take an engine penalty at Gateway, because places are easier to make up on an oval than at a road course.
West Coast weather could be a factor. Heat is generally good for Honda.
Marcus Ericsson really needs to win a race. Gateway would be great for that (he won the Indy 500 and finished third at Texas). What’s behind his relatively invisible performances lately? One possible reason could be that the engine he had been using up until the second GP of Indy was his Indy 500 engine. And that engine likely used “Kill Mode” at the beginning for the last stint of the 500 when Ericsson made up a 2 second gap on Pato O’Ward and Felix Rosenqvist and pulled out a three second lead.
What is “Kill Mode”? That is a short term advancing of the fuel and timing settings to the point it’s not good for the long term health of the engine. As this has been explained to me, use of Kill Mode won’t “kill” the engine, but it will cause a drop in top performance for the rest of the life of the engine. That engine was replaced at the GP of Indy two races ago.
The Manufacturer’s Race
With three races to go Honda has made up some distance to Chevy, but needs to win all three remaining races or have two really dominant performances. Chevy leads by 68 points. Usually, the winning manufacturer of a race gains between 25 and 35 points on the loser. So Chevy has a lead of about two races. Winning all three is the surest way for Honda to win. Of the three, the hardest looks like it would be Gateway, as Honda has badly lost all three oval races not run in Indianapolis this season. This is largely because of Penske’s dominance.
There is one wrinkle in Penske’s dominance: Josef Newgarden won two of those oval races, and won the Gateway race last season (he has also won one road course race this season). And Newgarden might strategically take a fresh engine in Gateway. Not only would that result in a grid penalty for that race, but it would make Newgarden ineligible to score Manufacturer points for the rest of the 2022 season.
This might open up a way for Honda to back in to the manufacturer’s race, especially if Newgarden won Gateway and a Honda finished second.
The Silliest Season Ever?
We can’t discuss Indycar without talking about the Chip Ganassi Racing lawsuit against Alex Palou. For those of you who have not been paying attention, this is what is going on:
- Chip Ganassi Racing announced that it had picked up their option on Palou for 2023
- Almost immediately Palou said he would be driving for McLaren in 2023 (though he did not specify a series)
- The parties had a settlement conference August 10 and are presently arguing with a Federal magistrate about the schedule for trying the lawsuit. Ganassi wants to move forward faster than the Palou team does
So Palou is effectively contracted with two teams for 2023. Ganassi and McLaren.
How does this happen? Palou is underpaid because when Ganassi signed him in 2021 he did not have a ride for 2021. So Palou had no leverage. Ganassi’s contract with Palou contained Team options for 2022, 2023 and 2024. Meaning Ganassi controls Palou until then, at least in Indycar.
Palou’s team apparently interprets the contract to have an out for a Formula 1 opportunity. And that since the contract with McLaren includes an F1 testing program, it supersedes Ganassi’s contract.
How does this affect the Indycar 2023 grid?
If Ganassi wins, does he try to make Palou drive for the team? I would guess so, because if Ganassi wins, he can probably keep Palou from driving anywhere else. And For Palou, driving is better than not driving. If Palou does not drive for McLaren, Felix Rosenqvist keeps his Indycar seat there.
If Palou ends up driving in Indycar for McLaren, Felix Rosenqvist becomes a free agent. McLaren has an option on Rosenqvist for 2023, but only for Indycar. That would leave him available to any team that has a seat open (he would rather not move back to Formula E with the new McLaren team). Would he go back to Ganassi? Possibly. But it might be more likely that Rosenqvist would hook on with either Andretti (replacing Devlin DeFrancesco), or Rahal Letterman Lanigan, replacing either Jack Harvey or Christian Lundgaard.
What about Ganassi? If Ganassi holds on to Palou, there is not a lot to talk about other than whether Jimmy Johnson will run a full season. If CGR loses Palou (or settles in such a way that frees Palou), we have the most interesting case: Who replaces Palou in the most desirable car in the Paddock? This is my short list:
Christian Lundgaard ( RLL Honda). He has made great strides on a sub-par team. And at the time of publication RLL just announced that they have secured his services for 2023.
Felix Rosenqvist (McLaren-Chevy). If Palou ends up at McLaren, Rosenqvist is a free agent. Is a return to Ganassi possible? It’s not clear if bridges were burned when he left. And would Ganassi look at this an an opportunity to prove to McLaren that his Indycar team is better than there’s?
David Malukas (Coyne-Honda): Malukas has been one of the most impressive newcomers in the series this season. Similar to Palou in his year with Coyne. The difference is that Malukas’ father, Henry, is a partner with the Dale Coyne operation (the exact nature of that is unknown).
Henry Malukas is looking at this venture as being long term, and David Malukas has said that someday he will drive for another team. Why not now, and why not Ganassi?
There is another wrinkle to this. Linus Lundqvist is going to win the Indy Lights title, and needs someplace to drive in Indycar for 2023. Honda is a backer of Lundqvist, who rose to prominence in the US F3 and FR Americas series, which are sponsored by Honda and run with HPD engines. Winning FR Americas gained Lundqvist the scholarship that put him into Indy Lights.
—If Palou leaves CGR , why not have Malukas “Graduate” into the Ganassi seat and have him be replaced by Linus Lundqvist? Stranger things have happened and will likely continue to happen.
The rest of the 2022 season:
Gateway: August 20, 6 p.m. Eastern,
USA
Network.
Portland: September 4, 3 p.m. Eastern,
NBC
Laguna Seca: September 11, 3 p.m. Eastern,
NBC
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