The short answer is “Of course he can.” When you look at his background and the background of former Formula 1 Drivers in the race, it’s obvious. He’s clearly one of the 15 or so drivers that have a strong chance to win the Indy 500.
- He has the right engine-car package: Honda
- He is driving for the right team: Andretti Autosport
- He already had one practice session and will get as much or more practice as anyone else before the race.
What kind of chance does Alonso have? I have not looked at what kind of chance the bookies in the UK are giving him, but I would say about 1-in-10. That is much better than random chance, but probably less that the top 5-to-10 drivers in the race with more experience. He’s less likely than Scott Dixon, Tony Kanaan, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Juan Montoya, Etc.
Can he win the pole position? No. And he would be foolish to make a strong attempt at the pole. To win the pole, you have to be able to run the car totally trimmed of downforce. I would not even try. I would target being somewhere in the 14-to-20 range with the idea of mking a safe start and settling in.
What will be the rude awakening that Fernando will run into on day one? Running in traffic at 220 mph. He will likely get his first taste of that May 15th, assuming the Andretti cars do some pack running on the first day. This kind of traffic generates side-to-side forces he has probably not encountered before, as well as front-to-back forces. The front-to-back forces can be really tricky, as a car in front of you can such you up into its wake from about half a straight. And there is a trick to using that force to your benefit.
Will Honda have the same kind of advantage as it did last year? Dunno. This season, Honda clearly made a step in engine power over last season on Road and Street Courses. But it is no sinch that this will translate to the 500. One thing that won’t change is the aero kits. They are frozen. But the suspension settings and adjustments to the aero are all open. So it’s possible that Chevy/Penske found something that will help them at the 500.
Will weather have an impact on Fernando’s chances? Yes. If it’s dry for the next two weeks in Indy, the track will really rubber in, which should help Alonso. And if the weather on race day is similar to what it was during the practice days, that’s also good for Alonso. This is because the track and the cars are both sensitive to temperature and humidity. If a cold front goes through the day before the race and it rains enough to wash the rubber off the track, this would be bad for Alonso. Similarly, if all the practice days are sunny and around 90 degrees, a cloudy and cool race day would be bad for Alonso.
Will weather have an impact on Honda’s chances? Maybe. Ever since the switch to twin-turbos, the Hondas seem to like cooler weather and the Chevys seem to like heat.
How big a factor will good fortune play? It’s rare that the best driver in the best car wins the Indy 500. Last year, Rossi did not have the best car. That was probably either Ryan Hunter-Reay, Townsend Bell (who took each other out) or Carlos Munoz (who got the strategy slightly wrong). And that kind of set of circumstances is what probably needs to happen for Alonzo to win.
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